In a time where Nigerians are facing hardships and struggling to believe in positive statistical data, the recent release of the rebased consumer price index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has sparked controversy and skepticism. The report indicated a reduction in inflation from 34.5% in December 2024 to around 24% in January 2025, leaving many questioning the accuracy and relevance of these numbers in the face of rising costs of living.
This phenomenon of doubt and suspicion surrounding statistical data is not unique to Nigeria. Similar challenges have been faced by other countries like Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, China, and the United States, where rebasing of GDP and CPI figures has led to debates, criticisms, and accusations of political manipulation.
Challenges in Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa
In Ghana, the rebasing of GDP in 2018 led to a significant increase in the size of the economy, raising concerns about the authenticity of the growth and its impact on the country’s economic status. Similarly, Kenya and South Africa experienced similar challenges with their GDP rebasing exercises, facing backlash from opposition parties, civil society, and citizens who questioned the reliability and relevance of the new data.
The opposition in these countries argued that the updated figures did not reflect the ground realities of job losses, high living costs, and economic struggles faced by the population, leading to doubts about the credibility of the statistical data and its interpretation by the governments.
Misinterpretations and Realities
The mistrust and skepticism surrounding statistical data, particularly GDP and inflation figures, stem from a misunderstanding of how these numbers reflect individual wealth and living standards. While GDP measures economic output, it does not necessarily translate to improvements in the quality of life for citizens.
In the case of Nigeria, the rebased GDP in 2014 revealed a larger economy, but the country still grappled with high levels of poverty and unemployment due to underlying structural issues such as corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and over-reliance on oil revenues. This disconnect between economic growth and individual well-being often leads to confusion and disbelief in the statistical figures presented by the government.
The recent rebasing of the CPI in Nigeria, which led to a decrease in inflation figures, was a result of methodological changes, updated basket of goods and services, and adjustments to reflect current consumption patterns. While the lower inflation rate may seem like a positive development, it does not necessarily mean that prices have decreased overall. Rather, it provides a more accurate representation of how inflation is calculated based on current market conditions and consumer spending habits.
Implications and Recommendations
For statistical data to be meaningful and impactful, it must be accompanied by sound economic policies that address the root causes of inequality, unemployment, and high living costs. Merely rebasing GDP and CPI figures without implementing policies to create jobs, reduce poverty, and stabilize prices will not lead to tangible improvements in the lives of citizens.
Governments must use rebased data as a tool to inform policy decisions, invest in growth sectors, create employment opportunities, and enhance social programs to mitigate the effects of inflation on low-income populations. By aligning statistical data with real-world outcomes and taking proactive measures to address economic challenges, countries like Nigeria can build trust in their statistical reports and foster sustainable development for all citizens.
Isiaq Ajibola, an economist and former Managing Director of Daily Trust, resides in Abuja, where he continues to advocate for evidence-based policymaking and data-driven solutions to address Nigeria’s economic challenges.
